Edmonton Real Estate Board | September 2019 Market Update
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Edmonton Real Estate Board | September 2019 Market Update

– Hey, everyone, Richard Robbins here. Well the numbers are in for
the Edmonton Real Estate Board for the month of September. So, here’s what I’m gonna
share with you today. We’re gonna have a look at all of 2019. Then what I’m going to do
is is I’m gonna compare September of 2019 to September of 2018, and I got some good news
there in terms of sales, but then also what I wanna do is I want to at the end, which I haven’t done for a while, is I wanna show you what’s happened with the average sale price year over year of detached, okay, townhouses, and condos. And I think you might be surprised at what it is you’re going to see. So let’s have a look. You’ve seen this chart before, if you’ve been following what I’m doing, here’s your sales January
through September. September we had 1387 sales, now that is down
substantially from August. We were down by 11 percent, and by the way we’re down
substantially from July, and also from June. So if you look at it, we really had about the
fourth slowest month so far this year. Look it, January we did 799, then we went to 986, then went to 1223, and then we’re moving
to the spring market, so your numbers start
to go up quite a bit, so you’ll look at this and
you’ll see we’re at 1387, now our active listings, which is the amount of
listings on the market at the end of the month, you can see in January
we started about 7100, and then of course what
happens, they creep up, if you’re looking, and then they went down, so we’re now at 8514. So what does that do
to months of inventory? So if we take the sales, we divide it into the active listings, that gives us our months of inventory. Months of inventory, supply and demand, determines your market, prices going up, prices going down, four to six balance, above six buyers, below four is gonna be a seller’s market. We started at 8.9 months of inventory. You’re sitting here in a
very strong buyer’s market, you’re gonna see in most
cases prices going down, you’re gonna see sellers
having to be negotiable in their list price or list
at a really good price, but then it went down to 7.5, then it continued to go down 6.8. We’re starting to move
more towards balance, and then April we went
into a balanced market. 5.4, 4.8, 5.2, and look at July, 4.7, and then August 5.6. So from April, right through to August, we’re in a balanced market, and now we’re at 6.1
starting to slightly move into sort of that buyer
market territory again. You can see we started 84
days on the market in January, we know that’s typically a slow month, and now we’re at 63 days right here. But how does this all compare
if we do year over year? So let’s have a look at this. 2018, 1312 sales. 2019, 1387. So our sales
are up by 5.7 percent. Almost six percent. Now, this is very consistent in most markets right across Canada, so we’re seeing that in terms of sales, this year is a little busier
than it was last year. What about average sale price? We started at 374 September of last year, and we’re now at 352. So you can see our average sale price has come down six percent, which by the way makes a lot sense, because at the end of last year, we’re in more of a buyer’s market, the beginning of this year
more of a buyer’s market, then we balanced out. So we haven’t had a seller’s market yet, we’ve had buyer’s markets,
and balanced market, so look what it’s caused our prices to do. They’ve dropped by six
percent, year over year. Now this here, this is a chart that shows months of inventory for
the last three years. Now I would say that there’s some very positive trends happening here. It’s not moving as fast as I’m
sure some of you would like, but it’s moving the right way. 2017 is right here. We started at seven months, you can see it was a better
year than it’s really been the last couple years. And then we go to 2018, we started exactly the same place. Seven months of inventory. Okay? Went down, and then it started
to creep up a little bit, but if we look at 2019, look it, we started all the way up here, at nine months of inventory, I talked about that earlier. But the cool news is, look it. We kept coming down, and we went below last year right here, and we have constantly stayed below what was going on last year. So, as much as we probably
don’t have as many sales units as we would like to have, but what we have to realize, there’s not as many listings
on the market either, which is keeping our months of inventory a little bit lower, which means our prices
are a little more stable, as much as we’d all like more sales. What about your average sale
price of property types? We got detached, we got condos, we got duplex and row. So look at this. The detached, 430 was September last year, and went to 420, so your
detached are down by 2.2 percent year over year. Look at condos though. 241, 218. Condos are
down by like 10 percent. So right now condos are gonna be very very difficult to sell, unless they’re very attractive
in terms of price to a buyer. Duplex and row houses,
right around the same, 345 and 343. What does this all mean? So if I look at Toronto
and I look at Vancouver, the condo market is very strong. Reason being, detached
properties are unaffordable, for most first-time buyers
and many second-time buyers. So they tend to move into the condo arena. But the cool thing about, you know we talk about
Edmonton, we talk about Calgary, we talk about Winnipeg
and many other markets, is because your detached
prices are affordable, your detached market is
still a little bit stronger than what you’re dealing with
here in the condo market. Now, still, a very balanced market when it comes to detached, but here’s my suggestion. What’s gonna happen through
the rest of this year, I would say your sales
are gonna be a little bit better than they were last year, but they’re nowhere near what they were three or four years ago, okay? So those years are all over us, which means, if you think about it, you know from three, four, five years ago, the pie has gotten much smaller. There’s less sales available. Which means all of us
need to be out there, we gotta be working a little harder to do the same amount of business, okay, or more business. But, I do see things starting
to get a little bit better, so as frustrating as it might be for real-estate sales
professionals right now, what you gotta do is put
it all in perspective and realize that the sales
numbers are at least up from what they were last year, and I think it will continue
the rest of the year to be that way. I hope this was helpful,
and remember everybody, it’s a beautiful life. Make it count.

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