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Toronto Real Estate Board | September 2019 Market Update


– Hey everyone, Richard Robbins here. Well the numbers are in for
the Toronto real estate board for the month of September. Now here’s what I’m gonna do. First I’m gonna take you through January through September
to show you what’s going on this year in terms of
sales, months of inventory. Then what I’m gonna do
is I’m gonna compare September of this year to
September of last year, and we got some very good news for you when I show you those sales numbers and average price, actually. But at the end what I’m gonna do is I’ve broken down your
detached, your town houses, and also your condo apartments, and I’m gonna show you the
average price year over year of those three property types
for 416 and also for 905 so you can see the difference. So let’s have a look. So we’re sitting here, you
can see January of this year, we started doing 4,000 sales. What happened? Get into the spring, start
moving that direction, went to 5,000. Went to 7,187, went to 9,042. And then May, which was
the best month of the year we did 9,989, almost 10,000 sales. June we went down to 8,860. You can see July, 8,595. August, 7,711, and now we’ve picked back up
here in September to 7,825. Now I will say, this
is a pretty good number compared to a lot of
other markets in Canada. A lot of markets in Canada, September was actually
lower than it was in August, so you did 1.5% more. We go over here, these are your active listings
at the end of the month. So this is at the end of January. You have basically 12,000 listings. Now if I take the sales,
divide that into the listings, that tells me my months of inventory. Months of inventory will
always determine price. It doesn’t tell you how
many sales you’re having. It doesn’t tell you we’re doing more sales than we were four years ago. What it tells us, what’s
happening with our price. Four to six balance, above six buyers, below four is gonna be a seller’s market. We started the year at three
point months of inventory. Very strong in terms of price, which means our prices should be rising. Went down to 2.6, 2.2, two, two, 2.2 in June, 2.1 in July, 2.1 in August, and 2.2. So look at this. From here, right when we got to March it was really right around the same, between two and 2.2. Now in terms of pricing, that means we’re in a very strong market. It doesn’t mean our sales are going crazy, but we are in a very strong market, which means we start at 748. Right now we’re at 843,
so our prices are rising. Also, days and markets should
be dropping, 33 down to 23. What about September of
’18 to September of ’19? Look at this, 6,414 sales. Went up to 7.825, that’s
an increase of 22%. What a beautiful number. What about average price? 797 last September, 843 this September. Up by 5.8%. Really healthy. Now, I understand we’re still not doing the amount of sales we
were doing, say, 2015. I get that, but 2015, year over
year prices were increasing by what, 18, 20, 22%, which in all fairness is unsustainable for a long period of time because houses become affordable. And you’ve heard the saying, what goes up fast probably what? Is gonna come down fast. So I look at all of this, and this is all very,
very, very good news. So what do we think is gonna happen? If we looked at 2017, this is months of inventory
graphed per month. We started at one month of inventory. Mark was unbelievable, crazy, went down below a month of inventory, below in March, and then
we went just up here, and then we kept going up. We had the foreign buyer tax brought us all the way up here. You can see right here we’re sitting up well over three months of inventory. Then we came down and we ended at 2.7. That was 2017. So let’s look at 2018,
we started at three. Went down, that’s the yellow line. We are balancing out,
went up a little bit, and we ended at three months of inventory. What about this year? We started at three, and look at the line, which way is the line going? Pretty steadily, right? Balanced out a little bit, but if we look at the months of inventory compared to 2018, the line
is up here, we’re down here. Last month here, here. Month four, so you can
see what’s going on, is what’s happening is our market overall is definitely starting to strengthen now, and you’re gonna see prices start to rise, probably a little bit quicker because our months of inventory is so low. So saying that, what’s
happened with prices? So if we take a look, and let’s start with 416. We’ve got detached,
we’ve got semi-detached, we’ve got condo towns,
townhouses and condo apartments. So if you look at detached, they went up by 1.4% from
September of last year to September of this year. 1.34 to 1.36. What happened semi-detached? Went from 996 to over a million, up by 7%, fairly big number. Condo townhouses up by 5.7%, we’re now at 786. And you look at condo apartments to 637, which is up by 3.4%. Now this is all very good but I wanted to remember these numbers. Detached, 1.4. You can see the townhouses is 7.3, and then we’re sitting
here five and with three. Compare it to 905. Look at 905. So if we go back, we’re up by 1.4%, 416. We’re up by 4.5% in the 905. Now that’s 946, but down
here in the 416 is 1.36. So again if we look at what’s going on, 416, average price is just over a million, went up by 7.3 for semis. Here we went up by 4.2,
not as much, and 690. If we look at 905, 640
was the average price, went up by 6.5. We went up by 5.7. You can see it’s quite a bit more at 786. 416, we’re sitting here at 637. Went up by 3.4, and of course we’re 497 in the 905, substantially lower, but look it, it’s up by 9.2%. I’ll tell you right now
the condo market in the 905 is very hot, it’s moving very, very well. So overall what is my prediction? First of all, the market is
definitely moving the right way. Right now our sales are
starting to increase. Our months of inventory is lower than it was last year,
which is all good news, and we’re seeing our
prices start to increase. What do I think we’ll see
for the rest of the year? More of the same. But again, we gotta be realistic. If we go back to 2015, ’14,
those years when it was crazy, our sales are still less than they were back then. So again, our pie used to be this big. Now our pie is only this big. So we do have a smaller pie. However right now we have a
very, very, very healthy market. But when your pie was this big, maybe as a sales professional you could be more of an order taker. Buyers are motivated on their own, it wasn’t hard to sell a house. Well guess what, now
it’s a little different. Now what we have to do is
be a skilled salesperson. So anyway, I hope this was helpful. Enjoy the rest of the year because I think you got a
good year in front of you, and remember everybody
it’s a beautiful life. Make it count.

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